Maternal, stillbirth and newborn deaths · 151 countries · 1960 to 2023

Mortality Transition Explorer

Each bubble is a country, sized by population and colored by continent. Press play to watch countries move down and to the left, from phase I, where mothers and babies die most often, to phase V.

Data through 2023.
How to use this map
  • Play Press play under the chart, or drag the slider to a year.
  • Pick countries Use Choose countries or click a bubble. Picked countries glow and show their paths. Pick as many as you like.
  • Explore Hover over or tap a bubble for its numbers. Phases, sources and references are below the chart.
Why were they left out?The transition model studied the 151 countries with at least 1 million people in 2000. Smaller countries have few births each year, so a handful of deaths can swing their rates and move them between phases for statistical reasons. Ticking the box adds them from 2000 onward, drawn as hollow rings. Use them with caution. Read the full note
2023
1960197019801990200020102023

Phases of the transition

A country moves up a phase only when both measures pass the threshold. The model comes from Boerma and colleagues [1]. Melesse and colleagues applied it to Ethiopia [2].

PhaseMaternal
per 100,000		Stillbirth + newborn
per 1,000		Newborn only
per 1,000
I≥700≥80≥45
II300 to 70055 to 8030 to 45
III100 to 30030 to 5515 to 30
IV20 to 10015 to 305 to 15
V<20<15<5

Where the numbers come from

  • Maternal deaths, 1985 to 2023: UN estimates [3].
  • Newborn deaths and stillbirths: UN estimates [4]. Stillbirth data start in 2000.
  • Population and births: UN World Population Prospects [5].
  • Before 1985: national death records, from 8 countries in 1960 and 13 by 1970 [6]. Values for 1981 to 1984 are filled in up to the first UN estimate.
  • Study countries: the 151 with at least 1 million people in 2000, as in the original model [1]. World and Africa show only these unless you tick the box for small countries.
  • Small countries not in the study. The original transition model [1] included only the 151 countries with at least 1 million people in 2000. Smaller countries were left out for three reasons: they record few births each year, so a few maternal deaths more or less change their rates a great deal; their phase can therefore move up and down from year to year for statistical rather than real reasons; and their UN estimates often rest on limited national data. The "Include small countries not in the study" box adds the other UN member states that have UN estimates, from 2000 onward, when UN stillbirth estimates begin. They are drawn as hollow rings, marked "added", and never used in the averages. Use them with caution, and quote the 151 study countries when comparing with the published model.
  • Small countries are read directly from the World Bank's open data service, the same UN series used for the study countries, and saved in your browser for up to 7 days. If the World Bank cannot be reached, the saved copy is used.
  • Live data: the explorer loads the newest published UN estimates every time it opens. A daily check against the UN series published by the World Bank updates them when the source changes.

Things to keep in mind

  • Stillbirths before 2000 are estimated from each country's 2000 ratio of stillbirths to newborn deaths. Those bubbles are faded with a dashed edge. Switch to Neonatal only to see measured data for every year.
  • UN estimates end in 2023.
  • World and Sub-Saharan Africa averages always use the 151 study countries, weighted by births, so they stay comparable with the published model.
  • Countries with fewer than 10,000 births a year have uncertain estimates and can move between phases from year to year for statistical reasons. Their tooltips say so.

References

  1. Boerma T, Campbell OMR, Amouzou A, Blumenberg C, Blencowe H, Moran A, Lawn JE, Ikilezi G. Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality: a transition model based on analyses of 151 countries. Lancet Glob Health 2023;11:e1024-31. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00195-X
  2. Melesse DY, Tadele A, Mulu S, Spicer N, Tadelle T, Wado YD, et al., Boerma T. Learning from Ethiopia's success in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality through a health systems lens. BMJ Glob Health 2024;9(Suppl 2):e011911. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2023-011911
  3. WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group and UNDESA/Population Division (UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-agency Group). Maternal mortality estimates, 2000-2023. Accessed via World Bank World Development Indicators, SH.STA.MMRT. data.worldbank.org
  4. UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). Neonatal mortality rate and stillbirth rate estimates. Neonatal series via World Bank WDI, SH.DYN.NMRT; stillbirth series via the UNICEF stillbirth dataset. childmortality.org
  5. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: total population and crude birth rate. Accessed via World Bank WDI, SP.POP.TOTL and SP.DYN.CBRT.IN. population.un.org/wpp
  6. Gapminder Foundation. Systema Globalis: historical maternal mortality ratios from vital registration, 1960-1980. github.com/open-numbers